While winter still has the city in its grip, the real estate market is already starting to thaw, and everything is lining up for what looks like a meaningful spring surge.

THE BACKDROP: MIXED, BUT CONSTRUCTIVE

Inflation has been stubborn, and as expected, the Fed hasn’t moved to cut rates yet. That said, most market watchers still expect easing later this year. When rates begin to come down, we should see a wave of long “locked-in” sellers finally re-enter the market — which means more inventory, more options, and (in many cases) better match-making for buyers.

On the demand side, consumer spending continues to be led by the top income earners, which matters in NYC. Add in strong equity markets and the expectation of a healthy bonus season, and you have real fuel for buyer confidence — especially in the trade-up and luxury segments.

WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENING ON THE GROUND

Following the Mamdani mayoral election, activity has played out differently than many expected. We’ve seen increased demand at the high end, and investor sentiment stabilized after City Council quickly rejected proposed restrictions on multifamily sales.

Meanwhile, rents remain at all-time highs — and limited supply continues to support first-time buyers and value-driven purchasers in the lower price bands. Brooklyn should remain strong, prime Manhattan continues to perform, and the slower pockets of Manhattan should benefit as more buyers step back in.

WHAT I EXPECT NEXT

As we move toward spring, buyers should see more choice as additional sellers come to market. The surge will likely be led by turnkey and luxury homes, but as buyer depth improves, we should also see renewed interest in “less perfect” properties — unrenovated homes, less prime lines, and opportunities where vision (and smart positioning) creates value.

2026 OUTLOOK - A NORMALIZED YEAR

I see 2026 as a year of normalization for NYC real estate: modest appreciation, gradually improving inventory, and a competitive spring market. Current forecasts call for roughly 4–6% price growth . In 2025, about 60% of deals were all-cash , but I expect financed transactions to pick up as borrowing conditions improve. New development inventory remains extremely limited in Manhattan and Brooklyn, which keeps discounts and concessions in check.

Here’s a quick snapshot:

• Manhattan: supply down ~6% YoY, demand up ~2%; ~11% of sales closing above asking; median sale price up ~3.5% YoY.
• Brooklyn: supply up ~1.5% YoY, demand down ~5%; still highly competitive with PPSF up ~7% YoY and ~22% of sales closing above asking.

THE BOTTOM LINE

NYC is a dynamic, nuanced market — and it rewards people who show up with strategy, data, and sharp execution. With 15 years in the business and a research-driven approach, my job is simple: help you make confident decisions, protect your downside, and maximize your upside — whether you’re buying, selling, or just watching the chessboard.

If you’re thinking about making a move this spring (or you want to pressure-test your options), reply here and I’ll send you a tailored read on your neighborhood and price point.

What are you more curious about right now — what your home could sell for this spring, or what your buying power looks like in today’s market?